Energy 2

7/12/2008

Energy Use -Where we are today



Electicity
Typically when we talk about energy it centers around the price of gas at the pump. This is what gets not only most of the media attention, it is what gets our attention and our goat. But the fact is that gasoline to drive our cars is only a portion of our country and indeed the worlds use of energy. As a matter of fact with the exception of a couple of Mid East countries the United States uses far more gasoline per capita than any country in the world. Obviously this is not the only use for energy in our country another major aspect of the energy situation is electricity.



Figure 1: Net Generation Shares by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), Year-to-Date through January, 2008 source

As you can see just under 29% of all electric generated in the United States comes from non fossil fuel sources. The remaining 71% is generated from fossil fuels, predominately coal. There is a reason that coal is the largest source of electric generation.



Larger View source

As you can see the United States is awash in coal. In fact the United States has 28% of known global coal reserves the most by far of any country. The US is the Saudi Arabia of coal. Not only is 50% of the United States electricity generated by coal, 40% of the worlds electricity comes from coal. So the switch to alternatives, away from coal is not a simple matter.

The good news for the United States is that the potential for alternative electric generation is there. Putting aside the nuclear option for the time being, the United State has several regions where alternatives can be effectively exploited.

The wind option being promoted strongly by Boone Pickens is very promising in the Great Plains region. Best estimates are that wind power could provide around 20% of the United States electricity needs by 2030. Currently wind generated electricity cost between 4-8 cents per kwh to generate. The big drawback is it requires backup, which adds to the cost. More on wind power

The South West United States is ideal for Solar Power



Larger View

Entire US

Solar Power may have the greatest potential, but probably has the furthest to go. It is still far too expensive to produce, between 30-40 cents per kwh and has some large obstacles to overcome, such as a shortage of silicon needed to make solar modules, conversion of solars DC to AC power and of course there is nightfall. However a tremendous amount of research is being devoted to solar energy and it is beginning to have results and it is not unreasonable to expect that in the not too distant future we will be able to utilize this permanent source of energy more widely. But for now it exists because of government subsidies and can not be counted on as a solution to our energy needs...yet.

Geothermal is one of the seldom mentioned but more attractive alternatives. From a short term utilization standpoint geothermal electric is ready when we are. Much of the west has tremendous geothermal potential. Although there are geothermal electric generation plants in five states only California has begun to seriously exploit the potential. About 5% of California's electricity (14,379 GWh) is generated by geothermal, more than any country in the world. Geothermal has the potential to supply significant portion of domestic electricity. One big advantage of geothermal besides the environmental ones, is the technology is already in place. In addition the future of geothermal is basically limitless.

" Today's technology produces electricity from hydrothermal (hot water/steam) resources. In the future, we may be able to use the heat of the deep, hot, dry rock formations of Earth's crust, and possibly the even deeper, almost unlimited energy in Earth's magma."

Geothermal electric generation runs between 4-6 cents per kwh which is comparable with any fossil fuel energy source. If there is any alternative to fossil fuels that meets the criteria for a "Manhattan Project" type investment IMO, it is probably geothermal even more so than nuclear. The environmental impacts are negligible, the technology is in place, the cost are reasonable, it can be plugged into the existing electric grid, and there is the potential of technological breakthroughs that could make it even more profitable and accessible.
Here is some more on geothermal electricity and here

There are of course other alternative sources hydroelectric which is obviously very clean but has some environmental concerns plus there are only so many places that you can build a dam. Biomass which I am not a big fan of due to food concerns. However there is potentially a lot of other source materials that could limit the affects, I doubt this will ever be much more than a limited source of energy generation, but who knows. There are also some promising new technologies beginning to gain interest such as Tidal Power




All of these and other sources of electric generation are presently being pursued as never before, both by private investment since 2003 venture capital invested in alternative energy sources has quadrupled. This does not include government research and subsidies.

Can We wait for Alternatives?

The question is how long until we can develop them and put them on line. Nobody knows for sure in fact various alternative sources are coming on line all the time, but we are a growing nation when it comes to electric use.

North American Electricity Demand Continues to Outpace Resource Growth; Reliability Concerns Remain

"Capacity margins — Peak demand for electricity in the United States is forecasted to increase
by almost 18 percent (135,000 MW) in the next 10 years — enough energy to power more than
100 million homes on an average day. Meanwhile, committed resources to meet demand,
including demand response programs, are projected to increase by only roughly 8.5 percent
(77,000 MW). Counting uncommitted resources, total resources would increase by 123,000 MW
or 12.7 percent. California, the Rocky Mountain states, New England, Texas, the Southwest and
the Midwest could fall below their target capacity margins within two or three years if additional
supply-side and demand-side resources are not brought into service"

This is not just a United states problem, it is global. Everyone will be using more electric and therefore increasingly using more resources to produce it.

We are not alone


IMO
Based on everything we know about the current state of alternative energy sources to produce electricity, it is not reasonable to assume that they can meet an ever increasing demand for the next thirty or so years. Even with severe conservation measures and technological breakthroughs it is unrealistic to assume that they will. I have not mentioned nuclear, planning on a future blog on that, but nuclear power plants would definitely help the electric situation. To me the question is not should we continue building clean coal and natural gas power generation plants, the question is are we as a country willing to sacrifice our current standard of living and economic growth by not doing so?

Here is an interesting site to see the renewable resources potentials in different regions of the country.