First off let me say that I am a registered Independent. When I did have a party affiliation it was as a Democrat until the 90's when I felt that the Democratic Party was heading further to the left than I wanted to go or support. This is somewhat ironic being as I grew up in the tumultuous Viet Nam era and I really had no major problems with Clinton's policies, though I had and have no respect for him as a person. I come from a very politically informed family and have always been a very interested in politics but I am just a layperson like most.
One biographical note that helps me view politics with a bit of objectivity, is that I have lived in diverse places with varying cultural, economic, and political traditions. Oregon, Miami, Lafayette La, Rural Northern Virginia, Orlando and now Sebastian Florida. All very different in their make up.
I also will say that I support John McCain for president. I feel he is the most qualified of the remaining candidates and in my opinion the most likely candidate to bring about real change and healing.
My header speaks for itself, now I'll explain.
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This is the final Electoral College Map for the 2000 election which Bush won 271-266 with 1 abstaining.
The reason I used 2000 rather than 2004 is that it was a much closer race. In order to win Obama needs to keep all those blues and take a red state from McCain. It really is that simple, the obvious one is New Hampshire, the lone red in that sea of blue up in the North East. Doing that would swing the race to him 270-268, however to do that he would need to receive a large majority of Independent voters, since Republicans outnumber Democrats in New Hampshire.
(Thanks to Sully in post #10, due to reapportioning, the above statement is not accurate. It would actually take more than NH for Obama to win election, Thanks Sully)
Obama must also hold onto New Mexico which Kerry could not in 2004. You would think that would be easy given Bill Richards' (the Governor) much publicized endorsement. However polls don't show that as a matter of fact on March 20th Obama had a 6 point lead on McCain in New Mexico, he now trails McCain by 6 points, but obviously things can change.
Of the battleground states the only red states that are competitive between Obama and McCain are Virginia which has recently moved onto the McCain side and Ohio which McCain has a very narrow lead in. What is also telling is that in many of the key battleground states New Mexico and Ohio for example, Clinton polls better against McCain than Obama. In fact Clinton leads McCain in Ohio but Obama trails him.
Why is all this important? It is important because as we learned in 2000, in a close race it is not as important that you win but where you win. Florida is probably not going to be in play, McCain has a pretty sizable lead, so states like Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico and maybe New Hampshire and even Colorado are the likely keys to the election come November. It is very doubtful that Obama can take any of the solid red states from McCain particularly in the south anymore than McCain can take any of the solid blue states such as California, New York or Michigan.
So what is Obama’s big mistake? Offending and alienating some of the very voters he needs in November in order to win the general election. Obama will get the African American vote, the urban centers and those who identify themselves as liberal including a possible larger than normal youth vote. But he needs more to win, especially in the swing states, he needs some white moderates. The Jeremiah Wright debacle coupled with the ‘cling to religion and guns” statement are going to cost him dearly, not amongst his supporters or even Democrats in general but in the middle with moderates of both parties and moderate independents. Even though Obama will easily carry Urban America, ultimately a candidate needs a substantial number of small town and rural Americans to win the election. If you are a Democrat and have a weak heart, do not look at this map
As you can clearly see there is a large and obvious difference between urban and rural America, in 2004 it was even larger. Look at even the states that Gore won, such as NY,CA,IL,PA the difference between rural and urban is drastic.
Obama for all his eloquence and the overwhelming support of an urban centered media, needs what can only be described as rural America to win. He has done little to endear himself to that vast red area, in fact he has alienated many, with his lectures instead of apologies for statements of his and those close to him, which have deeply offended many who he will need in order to win.
The following is an excerpt from an old but a great article by David Brooks in the Atlantic Magazine that explains the chasm which divides our country.
One Nation, Slightly Divisible
Sixty-five miles from where I am writing this sentence is a place with no Starbucks, no Pottery Barn, no Borders or Barnes & Noble. No blue New York Times delivery bags dot the driveways on Sunday mornings. In this place people don't complain that Woody Allen isn't as funny as he used to be, because they never thought he was funny. In this place you can go to a year's worth of dinner parties without hearing anyone quote an aperçu he first heard on Charlie Rose. The people here don't buy those little rear-window stickers when they go to a summer-vacation spot so that they can drive around with "MV" decals the rest of the year; for the most part they don't even go to Martha's Vineyard.
The place I'm talking about goes by different names. Some call it America. Others call it Middle America. It has also come to be known as Red America, in reference to the maps that were produced on the night of the 2000 presidential election. People in Blue America, which is my part of America, tend to live around big cities on the coasts. People in Red America tend to live on farms or in small towns or small cities far away from the coasts. Things are different there.
Everything that people in my neighborhood do without motors, the people in Red America do with motors. We sail; they powerboat. We cross-country ski; they snowmobile. We hike; they drive ATVs. We have vineyard tours; they have tractor pulls. When it comes to yard work, they have rider mowers; we have illegal aliens.
Different sorts of institutions dominate life in these two places. In Red America churches are everywhere. In Blue America Thai restaurants are everywhere. In Red America they have QVC, the Pro Bowlers Tour, and hunting. In Blue America we have NPR, Doris Kearns Goodwin, and socially conscious investing. In Red America the Wal-Marts are massive, with parking lots the size of state parks. In Blue America the stores are small but the markups are big. You'll rarely see a Christmas store in Blue America, but in Red America, even in July, you'll come upon stores selling fake Christmas trees, wreath-decorated napkins, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer collectible thimbles and spoons, and little snow-covered villages….
I highly recommend anybody interested in the two Americas read the entire article.
The problem is that Obama is not reconciling himself to the people he most needs the votes from and I seriously doubt he has the credibility left to do so. Many people, especially that giant urban media machine that dominates much of what we hear and see, assume that Iraq and the 2006 election have somehow changed red America blue. Personally, I don’t think so. I actually believe that the enthusiasm for Obama has created an echo chamber of ever increasing hype drowning out some very deep and growing anger in Red America. This will continue until the very moment that the votes are actually counted at which time I suspect blue will be seeing red again. The advantage I have, is I will support the president regardless, I trust America red and blue, it's nice to be purple:)
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